Championship Round Predictions

Before I start this post, let me just say again that I called the Jets winning by a field goal last week in San Diego. However, I caught some flak for not actually throwing a score out there, so to placate the masses I’ve put score predictions back in at the end of the entries.

I’ll be looking to at least keep pace with my score from last week (going 2-2), although I’d like to win out so I can break even heading into the Superbowl. Without further adieu, my picks:

AFC Championship

#5 New York Jets (11-7) at #1 Indianapolis Colts (15-2)

The Jets are starting to look like the dreaded “team of destiny,” having dismantled the second-seeded Chargers and fourth-seeded Bengals in consecutive weeks, doing so with a stellar defense and a great running game, reminiscent of the 2005 Wild Card Steelers that went all the way.

A key difference here though is that, although the Steelers did beat the Colts en route to their Superbowl victory, they did it because the Steelers beat them by doing the unexpected – passing the ball all the time. The Colts were set to stop Jerome Bettis, leaving several spots open for Roelthlisberger to dump to Hines Ward. This season, I don’t think the Jets can rely on Mark Sanchez enough, and even though their running game is top-notch, the RCA Dome is going to be very loud – and expect this Jets team to have tons of penalties.

Not to mention, Peyton Manning is at the absolute top of his game. Efficient last week against the Ravens, he completed 30 for 246 yards and 2 touchdowns, while sophomore Joe Flacco was injured for the majority of the game and couldn’t keep up. Simply put, if Peyton Manning has time, he will pick apart a defense, any defense. And the Jets front seven I don’t think will get it done. The Jets will keep it close early, but Peyton’s Colts will run away with it in the second half.

Final Score: Indianapolis 24 NY Jets 10

NFC Championship

#2 Minnesota Vikings (13-4) at #1 New Orleans Saints (14-3)

The Vikings really showed me something last week. I had been saying all along that if Dallas went into New Orleans and beat them week 13, that the Cowboys would make a run and eventually win the Superbowl. Last week they went into the Metrodome and got personally manhandled by the ageless Brett Favre. At forty years old I don’t understand how he can still make throws like that.

People often like to say that the Saints have the most balanced offense in football, and normally I’d be inclined to agree. They’ve got top notch receivers in Marquis Colston and Devery Henderson, a quandary of capable running backs, and a decent (but overrated) tight end in Jeremy Shockey. Oh, and Reggie Bush decided to live up to his number one draft pick… after four years. Probably just a one-off performance, if you ask me.

However, the Vikings defense is as good as any in the NFC, especially their defensive line. I have a feeling they’re going to blitz early and often, keeping the pressure on Brees and forcing him into mistakes. And although the Saints offense has been much ballyhooed-about, the Vikings can keep pace with Adrian Peterson – who hasn’t done anything this playoffs, and I expect him to have a breakout game.

Rookie of the year Percy Harvin has been rumored to miss the game, but it seems he’s going to be able to make it to New Orleans, and emerging star Sidney Rice will look to continue his hot performance this postseason. Oh, and that old guy behind center keeps getting younger. It’s going to be a close, high-scoring game.

Final Score: Minnesota 35 New Orleans 31

Enjoy the perfect football weather in the domes.

- Smola

Divisional Round Predictions

Last week was a tough week for me; as three of my picks went on to lose. I’m changing my format a tad this week, forgoing scores and focusing solely on the winning team. Maybe then I’ll actually look like I know what I’m talking about.

Also, my good friend Jeff Kramer has asked to get in on the action, so he was going to write a blurb for each game and give his picks. Deadlines got tight however, and he was only able to give me his picks, so his picks (and score predictions) will be listed after mine.

AFC Divisional Predictions

#6 Baltimore Ravens (10-7) at #1 Indianapolis Colts (14-2)

The Baltimore Ravens went into New England last week and showed exactly why nobody wanted them in the playoffs. Mr. Golden Boy Tom Brady coughed the ball up 3 times (two interceptions and one fumble), so the game was all about clock management, and with the running game that Baltimore has (Ray Rice and Willis McGahee) – it was over before the first fifteen minutes were through.

Baltimore does have a shot if they keep it on the ground. Indianapolis is terrible against the run this season (giving up 126.5 yards a game, good for 24^th in the league), and can’t run the ball (a pathetic 80.9 yards a game, dead last in the league) – so if Baltimore wants to avoid Flacco’s appalling 10 quarterback rating from last week – they will run the ball. And if history is anything to go by (which, most of the time, it isn’t) – Indy has lost the previous four times they’ve had an opening week bye to start the playoffs (Cleveland in 88, Tennessee in 00, Pittsburgh in 06, and San Diego in 08) – not to mention Baltimore did the same thing last year going into Tennessee and ousting them.

However, the Colts still do have MVP Peyton Manning, who has only not thrown for 4,000 yards in a season twice. Read that sentence again. He’s been in the league twelve seasons, and only twice has he not reached that 4,000 yard plateau. So their game plan will most likely be pass, pass, pass. Peyton’s better than any quarterback in the NFL in almost every regard except scramble ability, but his offensive line is so good that they don’t have to worry about that too much. He also doesn’t have the same problem that Tom Brady had last week in a star wide receiver that takes plays off (did Randy Moss ever realize the wide outs are supposed to block on rushing plays?). The Ravens will do their best to keep Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne in check, so look for Peyton to go to his other options, including up-and-coming sophomore Pierre Garcon. Historical evidence aside, I’m still going with Indianapolis in a close game.

Jeff’s Pick: Colts win 20-13

#5 New York Jets (10-7) at #2 San Diego Chargers (13-3)

Not enough can be said about teams carrying momentum into the playoffs. The Jets have essentially been playing playoff football for a month now, and haven’t let up. Last week they were all over Cincinnati, which makes me cringe a bit as a Steelers fan because I watched the Bungles trounce all over Pittsburgh this season. Needless to say, their running game has been excellent and their defense is living up to its #1 billing.

On the other side, San Diego hasn’t lost a game in three months, since a drubbing against the aforementioned Steelers. Since then, they’ve had a bye week and then gone on to win eleven in a row off of the strength of excellent play from Phillip Rivers, with his big play ability (to the tune of 8.8 yds/ attempt), and star receivers in Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates. Oddly, their running game has been terrible this year, finishing second to last with 88.9 yards a game. It is apparently true what they say about running backs having very short careers (how long ago was it that Ladanian Tomlinson was the greatest running back ever?).

So this game, it all comes down to the Jets being able to limit Phillip Rivers connect with his big targets. They do have Derrelle Revis, with the ability to just pick any pass out of the air that he can get a good bead on (6 INTs, 1 for a touchdown). However, they do have a size disadvantage at corner and safety, so if Rivers can locate his receivers this game will be done early. But if the Jets can hold on (the number 1 defense won it all last year) and force San Diego into a battle of attrition on the ground, they can win. And I actually think the Jets have the momentum to do it. The Jets will win by a field goal.

Jeff’s Pick: Chargers win 24-10

NFC Divisional Predictions

#3 Dallas Cowboys (12-5) at #2 Minnesota Vikings (12-4)

So Romo and company have finally gotten the monkey of their back in absolutely decimating the Eagles last week. Romo’s been great. Miles Austin has been consistent. Barbeonesoice (the three headed running monster) has been unstoppable. The front seven on defense has been stifling over the last few weeks of the season, giving up only 45 rushing yards a game.

Minnesota though, has a rookie of the year in Percy Harvin, one of the ten greatest quarterbacks of all time in Brett Favre, and one of the most dynamic running backs in football in Adrian Peterson. If the game was all about personnel, it would probably go into a tie. But it’s not, fortunately for Dallas.

Dallas is the only team in the postseason without a single player on the injured reserve, and it shows. Minnesota on the other hand has a decimated secondary, and although they have sacked the most quarterbacks in the NFL, their front line is wobbly at best, even with the extra week of rest. Unless Favre magic saves them this game, Dallas will win in a landslide.

Jeff’s Pick: Cowboys win 27-24

#4 Arizona Cardinals (11-6) at #1 New Orleans Saints (13-3)

This game is a tricky one to pick. Both teams kind of backed into the playoffs to rest their regulars. But Kurt Warner lit it up last week and reminded us all that he’s still one of the better quarterbacks to grace the NFL, especially come playoff time. Even without Boldin (which they’ll lose again this week) – they have Larry Fitzgerald and Warner still knows how to locate the ball.

I have a feeling when this season is said and done head coaches are going to start wondering if truly a smart idea to rest their regulars as much as the Saints did this season. They haven’t really played a game since that first loss to Dallas, so I can imagine that they’re rusty. And no amount of practice can bring a team up to game time speed. After all, how confident can you be in a team that signed a running back out of retirement to come back and play this game?

I’m of course referring to Deuce McAllister, the career rushing leader for the Saints. Maybe they signed him so he can ride the coat tails to what they think is going to be a Saints Superbowl. Sadly, I have a feeling Kurt Warner has different plans. This game will be high scoring. Like, basketball high scoring. Arizona for the upset.

Jeff’s Pick: Cardinals win 38-31

Will I be better than 1-3 this week? I sure hope so.

- Smola

Wildcard Weekend Preview

AFC Wild Card Preview

#5 NY Jets (9-7) at #4 Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)

One of three matchups from last week’s mop-up games, and like the other three this one was a bad, bad blowout. The Bengals looked just plain awful, even if they had nothing to play for. Carson Palmer only played one quarter, and completed as many passes to Jets DB’s (1) as Bengals receivers (1) – not to mention they amassed a whopping 0 yards of total passing offense. However, as far as the Jets saw it, Week 17 was also a playoff game – if they lost, they’d be sitting at home right now.

This Sunday’s matchup is a little different. Cincinnati will be starting their entire first string this go-through, not the practice squad that was on the field last Sunday. Much has been made about the Jets defense – but if Cincinnati has scored just two TDs last weekend (apparently a tall order) – the teams would virtually have the same scoring defense. The Jets also have Thomas Jones and the number one rush offense in the NFL – so if New York can give Jones the ball a healthy amount they have a decent chance to win. That probably won’t happen though, for a few reasons.

First of all, the game takes place in Cincinnati, a team that has only hosted seven NFL playoff games in its entire 41-year history; so that stadium will be electric and very loud. Second, the Jets start a rookie quarterback in Mark Sanchez, and although last year was the banner year for rookie quarterbacks that can stand the pressure of the playoffs (Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, et al) – Sanchez just doesn’t have that same kind of poise, at least not yet. Look for him to make a few mistakes in lieu of the playoff atmosphere.

Cincinnati 20 New York 17

#6 Baltimore Ravens (9-7) at #3 New England Patriots (10-6)

These two teams are very evenly matched, and both bring a wealth of playoff experience to the plate. However, in this decade they both have very different records in said playoffs. Baltimore used three separate quarterbacks (Dilfer, McNair, Flacco) and amassed a 6-4 playoff record with one Superbowl victory, whereas New England has gone 11-3 with three Superbowl victories. That’s right, the Pats have only lost thrice in the playoffs… this decade (or is it last decade?).

Baltimore’s defense is as good is it’s been in a while, finishing 3^rd overall. They’ve got veteran leadership in the scariest man in football – Ray Lewis (finishing fifth in tackles with 134). The other Ray, Ray Rice, has evolved into some sort of wild running wildebeest, garnering 1,339 yards on only 254 carries (that’s a whopping 5.3 yards per).  Joe Flacco’s also grown more consistent under center, raising his TD: Int ratio by 7 over last season.

One would think that Baltimore has a lot going for them going into New England – especially with losing possession man extraordinaire Wes Welker – but they still have to face the Patriots. The last time Tom Brady stepped off of a playoff football field, it was after his undefeated Patriots had just been hammered in Superbowl XLII at the hands of the New York Giants. Even without Welker, they still have one of the best deep threats in football in Randy Moss, and Laurence Maroney finally stepped it up to give the Pats a reliable running game. Put money down that Brady and Belicheat will not lose this game, especially at home.

New England 23 Baltimore 16

NFC Wild Card Preview

#6 Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) at the #3 Dallas Cowboys (11-5)

The Eagles may be kicking themselves after this weekend is over for laying down in Week 17 and not securing a home game for this heated rivalry. You can bet that Andy Reid will have McNabb and company playing their hearts out after that embarrassment. Desean Jackson has become Philly’s big deep threat, and Brent Celek is quickly becoming a top-flight tight end – so Dallas will have to be careful if the Eagles threaten in the redzone. They also have a fantastic playmaking defense, finishing second in the NFC in turnover ratio with +15 (Dallas finished middle of the pack with +1).

That being said Dallas seems like they have all the chips stacked in their favor. Their defense has been stellar this season, finishing second in scoring defense and fourth in rush defense. They’ve swept Philly in 2009 and have won three in a row. Tony Romo also finally has a consistent deep threat in Miles Austin – who was third in the league in receiving yards with 1,320 and tied for fourth in receiving TDs with 11.

If Dallas is going to win, though, they’re going to have to do it on the strength of Romo’s arm. He’s got to get the playoff monkey off of his back – and being third in the league in passing yards – I think he’s going to do it. Even if he can’t, he’s got the Barber-Jones-Choice trifecta to bail him out.  

Dallas 34 Philadelphia 27

#5 Green Bay Packers (11-5) at the #4 Arizona Cardinals (10-6)

The last rematch of the weekend, and again, last week was a blowout in Arizona. Not that the Cards had anything to play for, knowing they’d be back there this Sunday. Before last year Arizona had never won a playoff game, and this year they find themselves the defending NFC Champions. However, this year may be very different.

Not that Arizona has any lack of talent. They boast one of the best receiving tandems in football with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquon Boldin – even if Boldin’s nebulous contract status is still in the air. Coupled with gritty vet Kurt Warner, 38 years young and still pounding out 90+ QB ratings routinely, keeping it in the air will be a key for Arizona. If they put the ball on the ground, though, things may take a turn for the worst. Not only did Arizona have a 28^th ranked rush offense (they still can’t figure out if they want to start Beanie Wells or Tim Hightower) – they’re going up against the green wall in Green Bay’s number 1 ranked rush defense.

Even putting it in the air may pose problems for Arizona. Green Bay was first in the NFL with 30 INT’s, three of which were returned for TDs. And if it becomes a shootout, Aaron Rodgers has more than proven that he is ready for the task. Even though he was being pummeled all season – to the tune of 50 sacks – he managed to compile 4,434 yards passing with 30 TDs (5 rushing TDs too) and only 7 INTs – combining for an impressive 103.2 rating. Thoughts of shootouts aside, this game shouldn’t even be close.

Green Bay 28 Arizona 10

Should be a weekend of great football games.

-Smola

This is the World of Sports From My Eyes

Welcome to the sports side of the Blogirhythm. Make yourselves at home. Here you’re going to find previews of upcoming sports events (for instance, as soon as I’m finished with this post  my Wild Card weekend predictions are going up).

If it wasn’t football season, you might see a report on what’s going on in the Hot Stove league. Or why Tiger Woods is the epitome of American culture. Or maybe even a little blurb on hockey. Who knows. It’s most things sports here.

Oh. And pro basketball sucks.

- Smola